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This module generates both a heat demand density and a floor area density map in the form of raster files. The input to the module are different development scenarios of the heat demand and gross floor areas at national levels and broken down to each raster element as well as user-defined parameters to describe the relative deviation to the developments in the scenarios.
For the analysis of the future potentials for the supply of heat and cold from renewable and excess heat sources it is essential to take into account potential developments in the building stock of the analysed region. Part of the buildings are renovated in order to decrease energy demand for space heating, part of the buildings are demolished and new buildings are constructed. This leads to changes in the heat demand of the buildings in a region. Furthermore, the evolution of the population and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a region influences the development of the demand for building floor area and thus the demand for space heating and hot water generation. The aim of the Calculation Module (CM) - Demand Projection is to provide scenarios of the future development of gross floor areas and heat demand in buildings for a selected area based on calculations for the EU-28 at national level. Different scenarios calculated with the Invert/EE-Lab Module are broken down to the hectare level according to the methodology developed for the default heat demand density layer (REFERENCE). The CM also provides the opportunity to change two basic drivers in the scenarios and generate adapted results. These two basic drivers are a) the reduction of floor area of existing buildings, and b) the reduction of the specific energy needs in the buildings.
Select target year:
Reduction of floor area compared to the reference scenario:
Reduction of specific energy needs compared to reference scenario:
Method to add newly constructed buildings to the map:
As written before this module is based on calculations performed with the Invert/EE-Lab module for all countries of the EU 28 (see www.invert.at for a description of the method of the Invert/EE-Lab module). The calculated scenarios are analysed regarding the development of the following types of buildings: residential and non-residential buildings, 3 construction periods and newly constructed buildings. Then the population growth per NUTS3 region and the initial building stock (in terms of heated gross floor area & energy needs per construction period and building type) per NUTS 3 region are assessed. Based on this assessment the results of the calculated scenarios are transferred to the respective NUTS3 region. The NUTS3 results are then distributed to the different hectare elements according to the method developed in Müller et al 2019 (REFERENCE).
In the current state of the Toolbox (Release V3.0.0) the following two Invert/EE-Lab scenarios are available in the module:
In this scenario it is assumed that current efficiency policies remain in place and are effectively implemented. In particular, we assume that in general building owners and professionals comply with regulatory instruments like building codes. National differences in the policy intensity continue to exist. Therefore, the policy intensity indicates qualitatively the range of policy ambition in different countries. The energy efficiency policy mix corresponds to the current packages in place, which in most countries is a mix of regulatory approaches (building codes, nearly zero energy buildings (nZEB) definitions, RES-H obligation), economic support (subsidies for building refurbishment) and energy taxation. Main sources for implemented policies are the Mure database (www.measures-odyssee-mure.eu/) and the projects ENTRANZE (www.entranze.eu/) and Zebra2020 (www.zebra2020.eu/). While the scenario considers neither a strong technology improvement nor binding energy efficiency obligations, ambitious policies to foster renewable energy are in place. This has been implemented based on mandatory renewable energy quotas on the level of individual buildings.
Energy prices: Energy prices increase moderately according to EU Reference Scenario 2016 (https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling).
Technology development: The assumed technological learning is very low and costs for efficient and renewable heating/cooling technologies decrease only slightly.
Qualitative overview of policy assumptions:
Results: Total final energy demand for space heating, hot water and cooling in EU-28 decreases from 3650 TWh (2012) to 2800 TWh (2050).
The ambitious scenario assumes that current energy efficiency policies are fostered and are effectively implemented. This is implemented by increased energy performance standards of refurbished buildings, along with the assumption of moderate energy efficiency technology improvements. The scenario does not consider mandatory obligations to refurbish buildings. The additional drivers to increase the energy performance of buildings are increased investment subsidy budgets for thermal building renovation as well as the introduction of a CO2-tax. It is considered that the CO2-tax starts in 2025 at a level of 5 €/tCO2 and increases along a linear trajectory to 150 €/t CO2 (incl. VAT) until 2050. Main sources for implemented policies are again the Mure database (www.measures-odyssee-mure.eu/) and the projects ENTRANZE (www.entranze.eu/) and Zebra2020 (www.zebra2020.eu/). The mandatory renewable energy quotas on the level of individual buildings are identical to the reference scenario.
Energy prices: Energy prices increase moderately according to the EU Reference Scenario 2016 (https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling). In addition, a CO2-tax on onsite-emissions is introduced starting with 2025. Starting with 5 €/t CO2 in 2025, it increases to 150 €/tCO2 until 2050. The price increase leads to additional incentives for building renovation and renewable heating systems.
Technology development: The assumed technological learning is moderate and costs for efficient and renewable heating/cooling technologies decrease remarkably until 2050.
Qualitative overview of policy assumptions:
Results: Total final energy demand for space heating, hot water and cooling in EU-28 decreases from 3650 TWh (2012) to 2550 TWh (2050).
to be filled
Test Run 1: default input values
Test Run 2: modified input values
Andreas Müller and Marcus Hummel, in Hotmaps-Wiki, CM-Demand-projection (October 2019)
This page is written by Andreas Müller and Marcus Hummel*.
e-think energy research
Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives (ESEA)
Gußhausstraße 25 – 29/E37003
Copyright © 2016-2020: Andreas Müller, Marcus Hummel
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 International License.
We would like to convey our deepest appreciation to the Horizon 2020 Hotmaps Project (Grant Agreement number 723677), which provided the funding to carry out the present investigation.
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* machine translated
Last edited by marcushummel, 2020-05-03 10:09:04